Eurasia

Germany Acts

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Germany’s decision to deploy a permanent force of 5,000 soldiers to Lithuania is extremely significant because it signals the next phase of a new...

Russia’s Negotiating Strategy

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It has been about three months since U.S. President Donald Trump began the negotiation process with Russian President Vladimir Putin for peace in Ukraine....

Russia’s Rivers: A Viable Trade Alternative?

In a bit of performance art at Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a big show of sitting...

In Russia, a Late Night Call for Peace

In the early morning of May 11, when most Russians were fast asleep, President Vladimir Putin issued a long statement on a resolution to...

Victory Day and the Weaponization of Memory

I am currently in Prague to teach a course on geoeconomics as part of a master’s program in geopolitics at Charles University. While here,...

America’s New Threat Assessment

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(click to enlarge) The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Intelligence Community presents a detailed overview of a rapidly evolving threat landscape defined by...

New Battlegrounds in Information Warfare

The concept of disinformation isn’t new; it’s been around as long as information has. The difference between then and now is that now there...

Russia’s Deteriorating Internal Security

On April 25, a lieutenant general in the Russian military was killed in Balashikha, a town located near Moscow. A few months earlier, the...

How Wars End

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Wars – which I will define broadly as matters of military conflict sustained partly by the nature of the soldiers fighting and partly by...

The Trump-Putin Negotiations

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I normally avoid personalizing geopolitical events, since I regard nations, not leaders, to be the agents of history. But there are moments when the...

As Trade Changes, So Does US Defense

Reports from around the world suggest U.S. military policy is at odds with itself. On the one hand, the United States has pledged to...

Oil in the Trade War

Immediately after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his slew of tariffs last week, OPEC+ members, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced a significant...

The Asian Aspect of the US-Russia Detente

The ongoing diplomacy between the United States and Russia suggests that the conflict in Ukraine will, at some point, come to an end. That...

US and Russia Find Common Ground in the Middle East

The United States and Russia held their third round of talks on Ukraine in Riyadh this week, reportedly focused on a ceasefire in the...

The Limits of a US-Russia Detente

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are linked, at least in U.S. efforts to resolve them. In many ways, a contiguous shatter...

Engineering an End to the Ukraine War

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When the United States entered talks with North Vietnam near the end of the Vietnam War, it hadn’t been militarily defeated, but it had...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Peace Proposals in Ukraine, Air Defense in India

Waiting on Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone on Wednesday with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio about Moscow’s agenda for...

Postwar Security in Gaza

The situation in Gaza is so untenable that the fighting will soon have to come to an end. This means that whatever remains of...

Graphic Essay: A New Era for the Global Economy

The International Monetary Fund says the global economic system is being rebooted, ushering in a new era. As with any major shift, this reboot...

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